Indian trade has taken a hit amidst the ongoing political unrest in Bangladesh disrupting exports of cotton yarn, petroleum products, spices and auto components to Dhaka while hampering import of crucial components for Indian space programme and aerospace production sector.
The Central Economic Advisory has warned the Agriculture ministry of current political unrest in Bangladesh threatening exports would impact the cotton yarn sector which would hurt the Indian cotton farmers. “Prolonged trade disruptions and decreased exports would lead to an oversupply of cotton in India crashing cotton prices and hurt farmers income,” warned the central economic advisory letters to the ministry of agriculture.
The Director General of Foreign Trade has also alerted the Commerce Ministry on possible implication of Bangladesh political instability would further hamper Indian space programme and aerospace production sector.
“Any interruption in the supply of critical components for Indian aerospace sector would hit the timelines of many crucial aeronautical and space exploration projects,” rued senior Director General of Foreign Trade official.
India imports several essential commodities from Bangladesh, including ready-made garments (RMG) made of cotton, aircraft and spacecraft parts, jute, leather footwear and marine products. “Supply disruption would hit Indian textile and garment industries depending on imports for production. Inflation and rising costs would dampen the coming festive season of Ganesh Utsav, Navratri, Diwali and wedding celebrations,” states the internal mails of the commerce ministry asking to identify alternative suppliers for Indian textile, jewellery and footwear manufacturers.
The data from Ministry of Commerce reveals India exported goods worth Rs 91,614 crore to Bangladesh during this period, while it imported goods worth Rs 15,268 crore from Bangladesh resulting in a trade surplus in favour of India of Rs 76,346 crore. In FY 2023-24, the total trade between India and Bangladesh was Rs 1,35,285 crore, with India holding a significant trade.
The intelligence agencies are worried of the likely fallout of the civil unrest in Bangladesh with Dhaka becoming puppet of Pakistan’s ISI to harbour and train extremists for terror attacks on India.
“Indian supplies of wheat, rice, lentils, onions, spices, sugar, oil cake and electricity are crucial for Bangladesh. Any disruption in supplies will lead to a massive price rise in Bangladesh and lead to civil war and anarchy,” claimed senior geo-political analysts in the Ministry of External Affairs, Bangladesh division.
The diplomats argued it was in the best interest of India for a stable and strong Bangladesh to sustain the economic growth of the region and keep Indian manufacturing sector competitive with uninterrupted supplies from Dhaka.
