Three major setbacks occurred this year which threatens to turn India’s immediate neighbourhood into a “friendless” one. The first happened early in the year when Maldives’ newly elected President Mohammed Muizzu, well known for his pro-China stance, asked India to withdraw the handful of soldiers and airmen it had kept on a tiny island in the archipelago to run a small maritime rescue and surveillance base and opted to sign a military pact with Beijing.
The second occurred when Myanmar’s rebel groups which have been at war with that country’s military junta made unprecedented advances and by August 3 captured the nation’s northeast military command headquarters at Lashio.
Since India has limited relations with the rebels who had formed a tripartite coalition between the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – to launch what they called operation 1027, this defeat of the regular forces meant a major diplomatic crisis, especially as Sittwe, New Delhi’s choice for a base in Myanmar’s Arakan province now seems destined to remain a troubled spot for years to come.
What makes it worse is that China which enjoys good relations with both the rebels and the military junta looks poised to broker any eventual peace deal which may come about, once the rebels reach the frontiers of traditional Burman provinces or once the regime which has been frantically conscripting soldiers feels its army is seriously depleted.
Two days after the little noticed fall of Lashio, on August 5, the third disaster for Indian diplomacy occurred when Dhaka witnessed a sudden and forcible regime change, which is still being debated around the world.
India’s “friend in need” Sheikh Hasina is now living the life of an exile somewhere in the Delhi national capital region while an interim government is trying to control the mayhem, looting and revenge killings which have erupted after her departure throughout the countryside leaving thousands homeless and hundreds if not thousands dead.
Yet, there are signs that the dark clouds may part and India may yet make headway with its Neighbourhood policy. Despite showcasing his new found friendship with China, Muizzu knows that large sections of Maldivians feel India is their closer friend and neighbour and this section resents his more rabid campaigns against New Delhi. He also knows that while India is displaying strategic restraint towards his island nation in the face of provocation, it may also at some stage change its mind and act equally provocatively.
Muizzu consequently made an effort and attended the swearing in ceremony of NDA 3.0 in June and is likely to follow it up with a state visit in September where he will engage with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in talks to salvage his country’s ties with the larger neighbour.
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Luckily for India, even while it ignored Myanmar’s rebels, (in fact New Delhi had at one stage arrested Arakan rebels who had been “found” in an Andaman island and incarcerated them in Kolkata’s Presidency jail), its states did not. Mizoram still plays host to about 36,000 refugees from Myanmarese border provinces, while another 4,000-6,000 odd are living in Manipur, Tripura and elsewhere in the northeast. The Mizo civil society helped feed and house the refugees, while the state government opened Mizoram’s schools and healthcare facilities to the newcomers.
This gives India unprecedented leverage in terms of access and goodwill with the rebels which is in all likelihood already being tapped to build bridges with people who may eventually control the strategic oil-rich Arakan region, which lies wedged between India, Bangladesh, mainland Myanmar and the Bay of Bengal as well as the other mineral-rich areas of northern Myanmar.
The 84-year-old economist-turned banker Mohammad Yunus, who has taken charge of running Dhaka after Hasina, with whom he had terrible relations, was forced to leave, may be a favourite of the US administration, but he is no stranger to India and well understands the need to maintain relations with the neighbour who surrounds Bangladesh from three sides.
Phone calls by Yunus to Modi and by his aides to their counterparts in New Delhi along with promises to protect minorities and India’s security interests are an obvious attempt to placate the bigger neighbour which has been watching with alarm as Hindus, Buddhist tribals, Awami Leaguers and ordinary citizens faced the brunt of the chaos that overtook Bangladesh in the aftermath of the regime change.
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Bangladesh has always had a quarter to a third of its population supporting Awami league, another quarter to a third supporting the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-i-Islami, who have largely been anti-India. The remaining 40-50 per cent of the population has wavered between either sides to topple one or the other government.
This time round, the dice has fallen in favour of BNP-Jamaat. However, this does not mean Awami League is finished as one minister in the interim government rightfully pointed out, and AL remains a major political force to reckon with, which could at a later date well bounce back to power.
Even Hasina whose name right now is mud in most parts of Bangladesh, may one day become a trump card for her party. She has after all raised her nation from abject poverty to the status of a middle income nation and despite her dictatorial tendencies still has party units in various parts of the country pledging undying support. The contrast till now has been a chaotic makeover.
Mujibur Rehman, her father and founder of Bangladesh, before he was killed in a violent coup on 15 August 1975 had imposed one party rule and had become equally unpopular. However, today, when his ideological opponents set fire to his Dhaka house and destroyed his statue there was a loud public outcry in Bangladesh at the desecration of one who for most citizens is synonymous with the country’s national identity.
While India waits to see which direction the new interim government takes and keeps a wary eye on Islamisation of the neighbourhood and on China’s chess moves, it has to work not only to befriend the new, if interim, rulers, as also to further strengthen the people-to-people ties which are the real bedrock of any ties.
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More visas both for medical and tourism, more exchanges of films, theatre, arts and culture is the best way to keep the bonds between neighbours intact and to encourage regional integration. India has already invested heavily in trade and connectivity between the two nations and even if forces inimical to it wish to, these cannot be now rolled back or replaced without huge cost to Bangladesh and a possible public backlash.
The food exports by Indian firms for Bangladesh’s people and raw material exports for her principal industry — garments — are essentials and can be replaced only at far higher costs, which may not be palatable to ultimate consumers. Similarly, the bridges and railway lines between the two nations, if not used out of pique by a new regime will be white elephants for Bangladesh and an unfulfilled promise for a better and happier future for the region.
(To be concluded)
The writer is former head of PTI’s eastern region network
