Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces peculiar diplomatic challenges early in his third term. Firstly, the “Neighbourhood First” policy stands tested by negative developments in the South Asia. Secondly, the July summit with Russian president, Vladimir Putin in Moscow, absolutely coinciding with the 75th anniversary Summit of NATO in Washington sent out wrong signals. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy berated the Modi-Putin hug.
The developments in three neighbouring countries are significant. First, the change of government in Maldives with President Mohamed Muizzu winning on a blatantly anti-India plank. Some Maldivian ministers’ snide remarks about Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised hackles in New Delhi. The BJP fanned a national uproar for boycotting Maldives as a tourist destination.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Male on August 11 was geared to neutralising Maldivian angst. He was received well by President Mohamed Muizzu. He also had wide-ranging discussions with his counterpart. He also met the defence minister especially because the new government had loudly sought the downgrading of military engagement with India. Abdul Shahid, the president of Maldives Democratic Party (MDP), the main opposition party, also met EAM Jaishankar. India extended a line of credit for water and sewerage networks across 28 islands. The working relationship appeared restored, although the Chinese counter-moves to enhance their influence will persist. Ideally, Maldives would realise that they are best off maintaining a balanced relationship with India and China.
In Bangladesh a pro-India Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, elected with a massive though distorted mandate in January last, was ousted after massive public protests. She is in India until the decision on where she eventually gets asylum. Her presence here will keep irritating relations with Bangladesh as demands mount for her extradition. The interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, supported covertly by the military, is ruling shakily. Considering that Sheikh Hasina’s principal rival, Khaleda Zia, was promptly released from house arrest, as were some weapons suppliers to ULFA, there is worry of regression to policies of past non-Awami League governments that were not India-friendly. Thus it is an uphill climb to a working relationship with the interim government and then its successors. Can India shape an outcome that accommodates victims and critics of the recently ejected government and yet have pragmatic leadership open to normal ties with India?
Nepal too has a new Prime Minister. This is the 13th leader in 17 years, with prime ministership rotating between three persons, one of whom is current leader KP Sharma Oli. During his previous stint relations with India deteriorated, resulting in not only Nepal claiming areas within India, but issuing maps showing them in Nepal. He also visibly wooed China. Nepali Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba, the wife of a former prime minister, was coming to India for medical treatment. Sensibly India turned that into an official visit to engage a government of a past India-baiter.
The most notable Indian diplomatic rebalancing is the visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Ukraine on August 23. There was noticeable discomfort in Washington and the west when PM Modi arrived in Moscow in July for a delayed annual bilateral summit on NATO’s important anniversary. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy loudly protested the trademark Modi-hug with Putin. The PM’s visit to Poland and Ukraine was scheduled to neutralise these bad optics, caused by the nature and timing of the Moscow bonhomie.
However, no war takes a linear and predictable path. Ukraine surprised everyone, including the US, by launching a major intrusion into Russia in the Kursk region. It even took Russia by surprise. By capturing a huge swathe of territory and taking Russian soldiers prisoner, Ukraine has changed the script from being seen on the back foot to upsetting Russian calculations. PM Modi in Poland, on the eve of his Ukraine visit next door, reiterated his old mantra: “this is not the era of war”. Ukraine is already citing Modi’s visit as evidence that their diplomatic outreach and successful incursion into Russia has strengthened their negotiating position in any future peace talks. Ironically Putin may not be amused by a Modi-hug in Kyiv.
Russia however persists attacking Ukraine’s crucial eastern hub at Pokrovsk. Thus negating Ukraine’s logic that their attack would ease Russian pressure in Donbas region with Russia having to divert troops. However polling by Levada Center in July showed 58% Russians wanting war’s end against 34% favouring it, although 76% oppose concessions to Ukraine. Therefore PM Modi’s visit, like the Moscow one, is ill-timed to preach peace. Russian President V Putin has ruled out peace talks now. There is however an opportunity for inviting Ukraine to invest in high-technology joint ventures in India, because the extensive damage by Russian bombing to Ukrainian industry is causing insecurity.
It may not be an era of war, as the PM said, but for India, it is a period of rapid diplomatic rebalancing.
KC Singh is former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs
