It is not often that Vishwagurus get lectured by stand up comedians. But that’s precisely what seems to have happened in Kyiv six days ago, on August 23, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed there, with his two closest and wisest foreign policy wonks, Dr S Jaishankar and Dr (D Litt, conferred, Central University of Punjab) Ajith Doval, as if they were twin characters in a French Comic strip.
Modi’s Era of Peace Message Falls Flat
The Prime Minister went touting the line that he has been for some time that this is the era of peace, not of war, and every time he says it again, thousands have died in Ukraine and Gaza. It has left many diplomatic observers wondering, what then could be an era of war? Fuzzy logic and a stilted hand on the shoulders of Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the choreographed photo-shoot aside, Modi’s trip has laid bare some of the pressures as New Delhi picks its way through the Ukrainian minefield laid by Zelenskyy and his allies.
Caught Between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington
For, almost a week after his first hand, almost ring-side get-acquainted trip with the war from Kyiv’s point of view, the Prime Minister seems unable to extricate himself from the diplomacy around it. Let us work backwards: On Monday he called Russian President Putin, after he got a call from US President Joe Biden, to convey to the Russian what had transpired in Kyiv. We know the roughly the outlines because President Zelenskii pointedly, even bluntly, laid down the markers of what he expected from New Delhi, cues that gave away the sum and substance of the expectations from India on Ukraine.
Zelenskyy’s Expectations: A Tough Prescription for India
Broadly, Zelenskyy wants India to vote against Russia in the UN where Ukraine’s interests were concerned; he wanted New Delhi to stop buying oil from Russia. He wants New Delhi to be on Ukraine side and he does not want India balancing between the US and Russia; if Modi has ideas about peace summits Zelenskyy will be happy to discuss it. Finally India, a global south country, could host a peace summit, provided New Delhi signed on the dotted line where Ukraine was concerned. Global South is a polite term for nations of the world which are regarded as having a relatively low level of economic and industrial development, lying roughly south of the more industrial nations. So far New Delhi has managed to keep itself out of the NATO-led initiatives to shore up Ukraine against Russian military depredations. Now, how much of the Zelenskyy prescription is realistic for New Delhi?
India’s Ambiguous Offer: Playing a Vague Role in Peace
There was some curiosity when New Delhi proffered to play any role that was possible to bring early peace to the Ukraine conflict. It is the sort of vague formulation that says everything but clarifies nothing. Did it mean as intermediaries? Facilitators? Provider of good offices? Mediator? None of it made any sense till Zelenskyy pitilessly outlined what was expected from New Delhi. It was not so much about New Delhi bringing about a change in the dynamics of war in the direction of peace as much as it was about Zelenskyy trying to get New Delhi to moderate its behaviour in favour of Ukraine. Given this, what could Narendra Modi, who hosted the G20 where Zelenskyy was conspicuous only by his absence, have told Vladimir Putin? That he should sit across the table with Zelenskyy and thrash it out – or else…?
A Diplomatic Balancing Act with No Clear End in Sight
Let’s face it: Modi’s trip has not brought the end of this war any closer. New Delhi doesn’t have the bandwidth. Rather, Zelenskyy is preparing to go again to Washington with another wish list and wave yet another peace plan at both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. He is calling it ‘the victory plan’. He has outlined four areas of the plan. “One of the areas where part of the work has been done is the region of Kursk. The second is Ukraine’s strategic place in the world’s security infrastructure. The third is a powerful package to force Russia to end the war through diplomatic means. The fourth is economic — I won’t talk about it”. Come September, we will hear more about it. New York attracts all sorts of world leaders around that time.
Observers Critique India’s Directionless Foreign Policy
Astute observers of the diplomatic scene say what New Delhi is left grappling with is the result of a direction-less foreign policy and this embarrassment of hearing Zelenskyy vent could have been avoided. These observers also point out that for some inexplicable reason Zelenskyy was wearing a big frown as Modi clasped him to his 56 inch chest, while Putin was grinning like a Cheshire cat when he did likewise in July in Moscow. If every picture tells its own story we leave it to you to make of it what you will. All we are prepared to say is: He who hugs and goes away lives to hug another day.
