The 16th Summit of BRICS is being hosted from 22-24 October 2024 in Kazan, Russia. Themed as “Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security”, the meet will bring together many important non-western global leaders to discuss how to develop this fast evolving multilateral forum as a key non-western alliance and also to brainstorm key global issues, especially escalating conflicts.
India will be represented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who earlier opted out of the recently held Shanghai Co-operation Organisation Summit in Pakistan. The previous BRICS Summit hosted by South Africa in August, 2023 was a landmark Summit as it marked the first expansion of the forum.
The acceptance of five new members; Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was the highlight of the summit.
Their entry promises to add economic as well as geopolitical weight to the forum at a time when rapid changes and transformation are taking place towards shaping a new world order, especially in West Asia. It was also the first physical meeting after the Covid pandemic as the summits of 2020, 2021 and 2022 were held virtually. It came on the backdrop of Russia-Ukraine war and the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against the Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, despite assurances from the host, South Africa of no arrest, decided not to travel to South Africa and was present via video conferencing.
There is huge buzz around the 16th Summit as there are more than 20 new countries who have applied for membership, a clear indication that the non-Western power block represented majorly by India, Russia and China, and augmented by the entry of new members, may finally offer a platform to the countries, especially of the Global South, where they are not compelled to toe the Western line.
The Summit And The Conflicts
The Summit however comes at a time when there are major conflicts raging across the globe that threaten to divide the world vertically across two groups or ideologies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is well into its third year whereas the Gaza war has crossed the one-year mark and shows no signs of slowing down. Then there are other ‘cold conflicts’, like the one in the South China Sea that has pitted China against Taiwan and Philippines. There is also India-China stand-off in Ladakh.
Interestingly, the summit features at least one side of the first two conflicts whereas in the case of the India-China stand-off, India and China are both going to be represented by their top leadership at the BRICS Summit.
In the context of India-China stand-off, a number of attempts to de-escalate in the past had been made but none have resulted in anything concrete so far. A possibility of a meeting between PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit was being talked about but India has been very clear that there cannot be any talks till there is disengagement at the points of conflict and friction.
However, on 21st October, a surprise announcement by the Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, on the eve of departure of PM Modi to Russia, stating that ‘arrangement has been arrived at patrolling at various points at Line of Actual Control (LAC) leading to disengagement and resolution of several issues that existed with China’, has created a new buzz at the summit and there is now a strong possibility of India and China bilateral meet on the sidelines.
Coming back to the conflicts, the Gaza war has been raging on for over a year now. Iran, one of the principal benefactor of the resistance groups, Hamas and Hezbollah which are fighting Israel, will be at the Summit.
Both, Russia and China, have firmly sided with Iran. Especially while warning the US and Israel that any attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear sites or oil infrastructure is a red line that should not be crossed. India, on the other hand has maintained a balanced position, seeking quick de-escalation and minimizing civilian casualties while being steadfast in its support for a ‘Two-State Solution’. The addition of Saudi Arabia and UAE to the BRICS forum and their ambivalent position in the conflict, is also likely to offer a different perspective when the conflict is discussed. Although there is no likelihood that the BRICS Summit will be able to find any solution to the Gaza conflict, a detailed discussion on it will definitely give clear indication on where this non-Western alliance stands if the conflict escalates further.
As regards to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the battles continue as both sides claim tactical victories now and then. Ukraine is heavily dependent on weapons and supplies from NATO and Europe and there is apprehension that the supply lines could dry up if Donald Trump wins the forthcoming US elections. In this conflict too, China has extended full support to Russia while there are multiple inputs that Iran too has been assisting Russia through supply of armed drones.
The positions of both Russia and Ukraine have only hardened with time and it is unlikely that Russia is in any mood to relent on the battlefield. BRICS Summit, while discussing the conflict, is unlikely to make any bold declarations either way in this conflict.
Other Points On The Agenda
Other major issues likely to be on the table is the need for development of a BRICS-centric financial system, an alternate currency to the US dollar and ways to ensure that maximum trade between members is done in local bilateral currencies.
It may be recalled that in 2015, BRICS Bank or the New Development Bank (NDB), headquartered in Shanghai was established. The NDB was projected as a multilateral development bank aimed at mobilizing resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other countries. However, not much has come about till now and it is time for the bank to step up its operations.
During the current summit, there is also likely to be discussions on how the forum can be made more formal now that more and more members are likely to join. Trade, culture as well as security could be the prime considerations while making organisational structures within the forum.
And of course, membership expansion with more nations from the Global South being accepted would be keenly watched.
Conclusion
The 16th Summit of the BRICS comes at a time when two very important developments are taking place. The conflicts across the globe are dominating the agenda across forums as leaders look desperately for options for ceasefire and peace. Concurrently, the BRICS is expanding its membership rapidly and is getting ready to rival many other global forums like the G-20, G-7 etc.
With the UN reduced to an absolutely redundant and ineffective global forum, it will be left to powerful multilateral forums like BRICS and others to grapple with global and regional conflicts and solutions.
BRICS+, with its expanded membership, now represents almost 50 percent of world population, 40 percent of global trade and almost 37 percent of world’s GDP (on PPP basis). The addition of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran which form part of OPEC and are in the list of top 10 crude oil exporters of the world, gives strong muscle to the grouping.
When we add Russia, a part of OPEC Plus and one of the top three oil exporters in the world, the BRICS becomes even more potent and powerful.
Also, with the presence of China and India, the top two global importers of crude oil, the grouping has the chance to greatly influence the future of oil trade.
BRICS is therefore at an important inflection point in its growth. A well-charted agenda which formulates strong binding threads of economic cooperation, trade and culture but intelligently leaves out clauses and causes of conflicts between members (like China and India) could peg it as a effective multilateral global platform which can bring together countries seeking a non-Western alliance, Else, it too may be reduced to a talk shop like many others in the past.
Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not necessarily represent the views of FPJ, nor does FPJ endorse the views of the writer.
(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not necessarily represent the views of FPJ, nor does FPJ endorse the views of the writer.)
