US Presidential Election 2024 is just around the corner and although millions of Americans have already voted in early voting, the symbolic importance means the ‘election day’ on November 5 is being seen as somewhat of a finish line. Democratic Party nominee and current Vice-President Kamala Harris and Republican Party nominee and former US president Donald Trump are facing off in a fight that is sure to go down the wire. Presidential elections in the US have yielded bizarre results before this. It has also happened that the presidential candidate winning more popular votes has had to concede defeat to the other with less popular support (George Bush vs Al Gore in 2000, with George Bush emerging victorious in spite of less popular votes.)
It is precisely because of this that voters in America and even rest of the world try to catch some semblance of logic through opinion polls in the run-up to the elections. There have been times when such polls have gone absolutely wrong in their predictions (Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton in 2016). But everyone likes to see numbers because they make some sense when both camps are busy in political maneuvering and claiming victory from themselves.
So what do the opinion polls say this time?
New York Times and Siena College Survey:
The national poll carried out by New York Times and Siena College shows Trump and Harris tied in their support. The poll has revealed that both candidates have 48 per cent support each from those who responded.
Kamala Harris has actually lost some of her support. In last New York Times/ Siena College poll, Harris had support from 49 per cent respondents while Trump was at 46 per cent.
NEW National Siena/NYT Poll: National Likely Voters Tied; Harris 48%, Trump 48%https://t.co/iRZALnBrs6 #SienaPoll #NYT #NYTSienaPoll #National #USA #2024Election #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #ElectionTwitter pic.twitter.com/yhLxnLD1yH
— SienaResearch (@SienaResearch) October 25, 2024
The latest poll has revealed that immigration is top issue on American people’s mind. About 15 per cent have said that same. This is up by 3 per cent than the last poll.
And Trump has an 11 point advantage over Harris when voters are asked whom they trust the most to handle illegal immigration.
It has also been found that majority of those surveyed do not think that their country is going in the right direction. This is normally taken to be a danger sign for the ruling party, in this case Democratic Party. Only 28 per cent respondents felt that the country is going in right direction.
Trump is ahead on economy too but Harris has closed the gap. Six points separate the two candidates.
Not all is bad for Harris. She has a solid 16 point lead over Trump when it comes to women’s rights and issues like abortion rights.
Harris has more support among women while Trump has more support among men.
Financial Times and University of Michigan Survey
Earlier this week (October 24) Financial Times released the result of survey it conducted in association with University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.
What economic issues matter to voters? Using data from the Michigan Ross Financial Times poll, professors Brian Connolly, Jerry Davis, and Erik Gordon discuss key issues, including housing, inflation, partisanship, media, and more. https://t.co/ttVLd7u6IG pic.twitter.com/Vv7ytcubYU
— Ross School of Business (@MichiganRoss) October 18, 2024
The survey shows Trump has a slender lead over Harris when it comes to who Americans trust more to take care of the economy. Forty-four per cent trust Trump while 43 favour Harris.
FiveThirtyEight election poll tracker
Who is favored to win the 2024 presidential election? @FiveThirtyEight uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Check out the latest updates: https://t.co/mJw1KXbP35
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) October 25, 2024
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker revealed earlier this week (October 23) that Harris had a thin lead over Trump. The current vice-president was ahead of Trump by 1.7 per cent. But the gap has narrowed slightly. Previously, Trump was trailing by 1.8 per cent.
