After waging territorial aggression against its much smaller neighbour for 1,000 days, and after pressing into the war a 12,000-strong contingent of troops from North Korea, Russia is still not able to bring Ukraine to its knees. Despite losing a chunk of its territory to Russians, Ukraine still valiantly fights on, having, in turn, actually occupied a part of Russian territory in the Kursk region. It was the first time since the Second War that anyone had occupied Russian territory. Though the latter is merely a symbolic act which has not forced Putin to divert troops from the theatre of war in Donetsk region, it marked a psychological high for the beleaguered Ukrainians. After a thousand days of war, Russia controls 20% of Ukrainian territory. The seemingly endless war, with neither combatant able to force its will, may now be entering a decisive phase. Donald Trump’s election as the next US President has overnight triggered fast-paced developments. The outgoing US President Joe Biden’s belated approval for Ukraine to use the medium range missiles to attack targets in Russia has come as a shot in the arm for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. Within hours of the green signal, Ukraine fired a couple of missiles over a hundred kilometres inside Russia, destroying an arms depot. Russia warned that this was an unacceptable escalation and would invite strong retaliation. Within hours of the missile strikes inside, the American diplomatic staff was made to leave Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, as a Russian aerial assault was imminent. Meanwhile, Russia revised its much ballyhooed nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. As per the revised stance not only Ukraine which fired the missiles but their supplier, that is, the US, too is liable to face Russian retribution. Russians have been obliquely warning of using nuclear arms in the Ukraine war, now the timing of the revised nuclear stance too seems an empty warning. Putin may be a warmonger, obsessed with reclaiming the Soviet era glory for Russia but even the headstrong autocrat cannot be so foolish as to invite self-destruction by actually using nuclear arms to tame Ukraine. The truth is that Putin invaded Russia believing that in a few short weeks he would grab another Crimea-sized chunk of Ukraine and earn plaudits at home and validate his indefinite reign over Russia. He did not reckon that unlike the cake-walk in 2014 grabbing Crimea, he would meet a determined challenge from Ukraine and its western allies who readily supplied it arms and strategic assistance. Putin may have also misread Zelensky, a former TV comic, who displayed hitherto unsuspected leadership skills and an ability to enlist western leaders in aid of his cause. Defending Ukraine became a strategic cause for NATO powers since its capitulation would bring the Russian bear at their doorstep. Putin’s gamble glued European nations together, and obliged long-time unaligned Sweden and Finland into the NATO fold. Putin couldn’t have done worse to make NATO more cohesive, more powerful. However, with the inward — looking Trump winning the second term, Zelensky has shown flexibility, talking of a negotiated end to the war. Trump’s supporters, however, have criticised the Biden clearance for Ukraine to attack Russia inside its territory as a bid to foil his potential efforts to end the war. The so-called neo-cons entrenched in the Washington strategic community are being blamed for the latest escalation. One can reject such criticism since all that a potential Trump peace plan for Ukraine entails is its meek surrender of 20-percent territory now under Russian control.
In the larger context, Trump is out to dismantle the post-war strategic superstructure created by the leader of the free world to defend it against aggression from the communist Soviet Union. Repercussions for the US itself of such a myopic security strategy would be challenging, weakening rather than bolstering the effort to make America great again. Unless the US is ready to abandon its numero uno status as a great military and economic power, it would desist from imposing humiliating terms on Zelensky to end the war. Such an outcome will shatter American standing globally, encourage dictators like Putin to harass smaller neighbours and virtually signal Europe to organise its own security against a newly-emboldened Russian autocrat who harbours Greater Russia dreams by pulling erstwhile East European nations into his orbit. Trump’s quest for Peace Nobel will gravely hurt America’s security interests. Unlike his MAGA base, Trump as president of the most powerful nation ought to heed the security establishment which alone has assured that for 70-plus years there has been no major war on the European soil. Besides, Trump inducing Ukraine’s surrender will embolden not only Russia but its new ally China as well. The China-Russia axis, desperate to diminish the US influence in global affairs, will celebrate Trump-dictated annexation of Ukrainian territory. Trump needs to leave behind the simple-mindedness of the campaign trail and get a grip on America’s wider strategic security and economic interests for its own sake and for the sake of the free world, looking in trepidation at an increasingly aggressive and expansionist China.
