In cricket, a player going through a rough patch is often advised to stick to the basics. It is no surprise that the BJP, having hit a rough patch in the Lok Sabha election, decided to revert to its basic playbook – the pro-Hindu card that had transformed it from a two-MP party in 1984 to winning a majority in 2014.
Incidentally, the top two leaders of the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Home Minister Amit Shah, had served as presidents of the Gujarat Cricket Association. The BJP had started its campaign in the present round of assembly elections seeking votes in the name of development, but stopped in its tracks, realising it might once again get them a lukewarm response since people’s aspirations are not easy to meet. T
he party’s initial focus on infrastructure projects and welfare schemes failed to generate the expected enthusiasm. The party then unleashed the saffron-clad Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who evoked religious sentiments with his slogan ‘Batenge toh Katenge’. Modi took the baton from there, coming up with his own version of Yogi’s rhetoric – ‘Ek Hain toh Safe Hain’. They remembered the cricketing suggestion well in time, and the results came instantly. While development and double-engine government slogans could not deliver the desired results in the Lok Sabha polls, evoking pro-Hindu sentiments and galvanising the voters worked wonders across the nation.
The BJP-led NDA did exceptionally well, especially in Maharashtra with a one-sided victory that left opposition strategists scratching their heads. A similar trend was witnessed in India’s most populous states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. BJP and NDA prospered in these states while the Congress-led INDIA bloc faltered and fell on its face, leaving them to wonder if merely displaying a copy of the Indian Constitution and accusing Modi of working for crony capitalists might not be enough for the future. However, the BJP too has something to ponder about with its failure in Jharkhand. For the first time since the state’s formation in 2000 after its bifurcation from Bihar, voters have favoured the incumbent government.
The lesson from Jharkhand is clear – do not arrest a top leader without enough evidence to keep them confined to prison for long. Chief Minister Hemant Soren was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate on corruption charges on January 31. However, he secured bail and walked out of jail in less than five months as the judiciary found the evidence insufficient to keep him behind bars. The move appears to have backfired, generating sympathy for Soren and his party among the tribal voters who form a significant chunk of the state’s electorate.
This is not the first time the arrest and release of a prominent leader has swung voter sentiment. The Janata Party government had committed this mistake in December 1978 when it arrested Indira Gandhi, who was then politically vulnerable following Congress’ historic defeat in 1977. Indira walked out of jail within six days – time enough to revive her political fortunes and signal the end of the Janata Party experiment. The parallels between these two episodes, separated by more than four decades, are striking and serve as a reminder that political vendetta can often boomerang.
The BJP’s missteps in Jharkhand were numerous. Through its then governor Ramesh Bias, it kept Hemant Soren and his government on tenterhooks for long, making several half-hearted attempts to dislodge him from power without going the full distance, as it had done in Maharashtra. These elections have also served as a wakeup call for the opposition. Merely ganging up against the BJP, naming their alliance after the country, working at cross-purposes, and hoping to thrive on negative voting might not sustain their 2029 dreams of ruling India again.
The Bihar result, where the NDA made a clean sweep on all four seats – three previously held by Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD – is particularly telling. It also sends a clear message to election strategist Prashant Kishor, whose newly-floated Jan Suraaj Party failed in all four seats. A one-leader party formula might not work in Bihar; he will need to scout for candidates capable of winning voters’ hearts instead of accepting turncoats from other parties.
Ajay Jha is a journalist, author and commentator
