Paisa Bolta Hai. Yes, it does. Ask Mahayuti. They didn’t expect such an overwhelming landslide. Nobody did. Even the exit polls predicted a tough contest with a slight edge for the MVA. Yet, the EVMs last Saturday, November 23rd, settled the issue. “Ladki Bahins” sent a big thank you to Messrs Devendra Fadnavis, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. The Lok Sabha outcome forced the trio to do their electoral sums again. The upshot was the monthly payment of Rs 1,500 in the bank accounts of every woman between the age of 18 and 60 in Maharashtra. Of over 4.7 crore women voters, nearly 66% voted in the Assembly poll, 6% more than in the recent Lok Sabha poll. Considering that the difference in the vote percentage of the rival alliances in the Lok Sabha poll was negligible, though MVA had won more seats than the Mahayuti, the tide turned in favour of the ruling alliance thanks to the women voters. Therefore, MVA should stop faulting low-voltage EVMs or the Election Commission for delaying the poll by a few weeks. They come across as sore losers. For now, the Shinde Sena and the Ajit NCP have effectively settled the issue. It is for Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, or rather his mentor Sanjay Raut, to mull over the big blow Maharashtra voter has delivered most convincingly. Mahayuti was not humiliated by the voter in the Lok Sabha poll. On the other hand, if the Assembly election signifies anything, it signifies the collective humiliation of the MVA, puncturing the bloated egos of its leaders. They can also blame the BJP dog-whistle slogans like “Batenge toh katenge” and “Ek hain toh safe hain”, though the Shinde government had not ignored the problems of the soyabean and cotton farmers either, nor had it ignored the concerns of urban voters in Mumbai, doing away with the toll tax and inaugurating new infrastructure projects in the metropolis. It was a government that performed as against Uddhav’s which like a spurned lover got fixated on taking revenge against BJP. Doubtless, to an extent there was a Hindu consolidation in response to the total Muslim consolidation in favour of MVA in the Lok Sabha poll. The chain of events following the 2019 Assembly poll with BJP winning 105 seats and alliance partner, the united Shiv Sena, winning 56 was unfortunate. An evil hand had egged on an indecisive and wavering Uddhav to stake claim on leadership of the BJP-Sena combine, even though the number of seats his party had won was nearly half of the BJP. Anyway, Devendra Fadnavis can rightfully claim the chief ministerial gaddi, now that BJP has won more seats than those of its two allies put together. Besides, if he, a former chief minister, had no problem working as Shinde’s deputy, one sees no reason for the latter to swap places with him. That will not only respect the popular mandate but will make for a purposeful governance. The much emasculated Opposition will do well to cooperate rather than indulge in negative politics, trying to sow divisions between Gujaratis and Maharashtrians or fuelling insecurity of Muslims by painting BJP in horrid terms. In his saner moments Uddhav Thackeray must reflect on the folly of breaking away from his natural Hindutva ally, the BJP, and supping with Sena’s long-time antagonists. In time, he should be able to reconcile to the central message of the poll. Which is that the BJP-Sena are a great fit together. As for senior Pawar, he is on record saying that he was ripe for retirement. He too should use his energies to try and work for a rapprochement within his larger family in order for that unity to facilitate unity of the rival NCPs. As for the biggest loser of the poll, all that one can say is that Rahul Gandhi is incorrigible, unwilling and unable to mature into a convincing leader with a clear blueprint to further the legacy of his family. His unbridled abuse of Modi only helps to further burnish Modi’s image. Now that sister, Priyanka Vadra, is set to join him in the Lok Sabha, the two should hire better mentors who can show them the way to act like forceful but nonetheless responsible opposition leaders. Noise and disruption in Parliament cannot regain the family-owned party its pole position. The Gandhi name no longer can be traded for votes in the polling booths across the country. In fact, the party should be entirely beholden to its senior partner, JMM, for its relatively good showing in Jharkhand. The BJP played the infiltrator card but could not loosen the JMM grip on the tribal voters. Nonetheless, it has again emerged as a strong opposition in the resource-rich state. Again, the string of bye-elections in UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Punjab, etc., have gone in favour of the ruling parties in the respective States. Much should be read into these results, though the near-rout of Akhilesh Yadav and Laloo Yadav in UP and Bihar was unexpected. Also, Prashant Kishore’s Suraaj Party came a cropper in its maiden bid to test electoral waters in Bihar, jolting well-intentioned efforts by a lone-ranger to give a new direction to politics in the caste-ridden State.
Meanwhile, the all-important message from the Assembly polls in general and Maharashtra in particular is that the Modi brand shines as brightly as it did before the somewhat lukewarm outcome in Lok Sabha poll had dimmed it a bee-whit. As of now, in the entire political spectrum. There is no-one to challenge him, one-to-one. The sham of INDI block did nothing to turn Rahul Gandhi into a convincing leader. On the opening of the winter session on Monday, it is for the Opposition to decide whether Parliament should function or adjourn in noise and pandemonium. The latest Adani bombshell is a double-edged weapon. It may highlight his proximity to the ruling regime, but it clearly suggests that the actual bribe-takers were the top guns of the Opposition. If Rahul wants to cut his nose to spite his face, he can lead his troops into the well of the Lok Sabha, raise anti-Modi slogans, tear some posters smuggled into the House in violation of rules and then rant Adani-Adani in front of the news cameras. The other, and sensible, option is to accept the big message from the Maharashtra voters and behave like a constructive and responsible Opposition. Modi has reason to remain unfazed by Rahul’s name-calling. The Maharashtra outcome should now register with the Leader of the Opposition as well.
